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Interpreting 2022 Illinois Gubernatorial Candidate Positions Through Their Twitter Data

Published September 28, 2022 by Yasmin Carrillo

By: Yasmin Carrillo

We are less than 2 months away from the general elections and in 2022, social media is a huge contributing factor to not only following but staying informed on what candidates find important enough to share with the world on their account.

Using the rtweet package for the R programming language, this study collected and compared the last 3,200 tweets of J.B Pritzker (3,200 tweets), Darren Bailey (2428 tweets) and Scott Schluter (68 tweets), all running candidates for governor of Illinois. Data for Pritzker and Bailey was retrieved on September 14, 2022, and data for Schluter was retrieved on September 20, 2022. With the 6-day difference in the data retrieved from Twitter’s Public API, there have been no major contributions made on Twitter by GovPritzer and DarrenBailey, that would alternate or affect the information explained below.

After the data was retrieved, a method called “topic modeling” was applied to each candidate’s body of tweets using the Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) method through the R Topicmodels package. Topic modeling allows allows for centralized themes to be identified statistically in to better analyze and compare the content of the tweets.

For Pritzker and Bailey, 25 topics were derived from the Twitter data and because Schluter has tweeted less than 100 times, only 10 topics were derived from his Twitter data.

In summary, the findings showcase a conservative narrative by Darren Bailey while actively criticizing Governor Pritzker. While Governor Pritzker has ignored the remarks made, his overall focus of the past two years of tweets that were collected has been on Illinois and COVID-19. While Schluter has not been very active on Twitter, he is running for governor as an independent under the Libertarian Party. From the themes derived we see his statements on Pritzker, social issues and promises about a better Illinois if elected. It is important to recognize that all three candidates have themes that further help the interpreter understand their (the candidates) positions on certain topics such as the state of Illinois, healthcare, education, legislation, gun rights, women’s rights, Black Lives Matter and much more.

Findings

J.B Pritzker

  • Because this is a recollection of 3,200 tweets, the pandemic lasting over 3 years now, it can be inferred that a repeated theme would be Covid-19
    • From the last tweet collected on 9/14/2022 to the first one on 12/7/2020, those being 3200 tweets, the word Covid appears 306 times, and the word vaccine appears 368 times.
    • The word vaccine appears 8 times in the data table below
    • Governor Pritzker pushed for Illinoians to be vaccinated,
    • There is great emphasis on community and family in these hard times. The word community appears a total of 248 times
    • The word health appears 430 times
    • The word governor gets repeated 383 times, 38 of those are COVID-19 updates given by Pritzker
  • Conversations about the legislation of healthcare, such as the Safe- T Act and the Reimagine Public Safety Act
  • Emphasizes the use of the word “Illinois”, which can be contributed to the positive news and state updates
    • The word Illinois appears 1,903 times
  • “Bailey” is mentioned 3 times, and they all revolve in wishing him a speedy recovery after collapsing on the House floor
  • “Donald Trump” appears 3 times, in which Pritzker criticizes him
    • One tweet is from January 6, 2021

Rplot data from GovPritzker twitter account

Darren Bailey

  • First joined Twitter on 9/24/2017 and has tweeted 2428 times
  • There are repeated themes revolving around criticizing Governor Pritzker
  • Theme 7 and 8: stance on gun rights: “VOID THE FOID”, stating it is unconstitutional
    • Tweet below was retweeted by Darren Bailey
  • Them 5 is about reproductive rights and Bailey being pro-life
  • No twitter activity on January 6, 2021
  • Number of times certain words are used 
    • Illinois appears 1409 times
      • Actively uses hashtags: baileyforillinois appears 203 times, restoreillinois appears 125 times
      • Illinoisan appears 131 times
    • Pritzker appears 689 times
      • Of those, 205 are the hashtag firepritzker
      • 104 are GovPritzker
    • Restore 345
    • Families 218
    • Movement 134
    • Vote 132
    • Taxes 119
    • Donald Trump 83 (theme 6)
    • Failed 67
    • Economy 40
    • Gun 35
    • Mask 34

Rplot data from DarrenBailey twitter account

Pritzker and Bailey

  • Bailey used the word “democrat” 109 times and “republican” 112 times
  • Pritzker used the word “democrat” 8 times and “republican” 6 times
  • Bailey has the word “elections” 85 times and Pritzker 9 times
  • “November” word under Pritzker is not associated with the election and Bailey has “Fire” Pritzker and “taking over as governor” associated when using the word November
  • Twill was used by Bailey 597 times, Pritzker used it 6 times

Scott Schluter

  • Twitter account opened on 9/20/2015 and has a total of 68 tweets
  • There is a 5-year gap, 2016-2021 can be that he was not active, reasons unknown
  • No Twitter activity on January 6, 2021. Rejoined Twitter on March 16, 2021, after his last post was on January 18, 2016
  • Theme 1 focuses on Scott’s campaign and getting the community involved
  • “Tax dollars” appear twice, but it is a testament to the focus of Scott’s campaign
  • Theme 5 is about the tweet below
  • Theme 7 focuses on the pollical beliefs Scott has and whom he is running under, the Libertarian Party
  • Theme 10 is about the tweet below
  • No Donald Trump mentions
  • Tax/taxes 9 times
  • Libertarian 15 times
  • Illinois 14 times

Rplot data from ScottForLiberty twitter account

The purpose of social media is to allow users to create and share content related to their opinions, beliefs, likes, and dislikes. It serves as another platform for individuals to connect with others that are not in the vicinity and to connect with others who hold similar views. The purpose of this project is to find deeper connections between the promises, critiques, and arguments made between the candidates running for the 2022 general election in the Illinois State University community. Social media is a place where individuals can express themselves and everyone should be informed about what it would actually mean to elect certain candidates.

For additional information, the Illinois State University Center for Civic Engagement has created a candidate guide that holds information regarding the official websites of the general 2022 election candidates.

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